Something that I don’t think has actually come up in my commentary on SpaceX and its fan base is the question of capability. With all the criticisms I (naturally) have for the far off, science-fiction sounding goals of the company, you have to wonder: Do I actually think SpaceX can do all the things they say they can?

I feel like the general thought process when a fan of SpaceX encounters anyone who disagrees with them on the company immediately jumps a presumption that the opposing viewpoint thinks they can never succeed. It’s typical false dichotomy, which is understandable since people tend to think in very black-or-white, yes-or-no, good-or-bad ways.

Anyone who actually thinks about things, and keeps a rational perspective should be more in the middle, being reserved but probably optimistic about the plans of most anyone or anything – SpaceX is no exception. A tempered attitude is the best one to have, and that’s the reason why I have such an issue with the cult of SpaceX mentality – it’s the complete opposite of someone who would just hate them by default, these people instead feel there is no fault possible, nor ever has been with the company, something even Elon Musk would certainly admit to – he has before, and even now with projects like the Falcon Heavy, he feels may not succeed on its first launch. While I feel he’s too optimistic in many of his plans, and creates more of a negative atmosphere than a positive one in how he presents his goals, he’s still at least realistic – something his fans don’t even listen to when you really compare their comments to his.

So getting back to the question at hand: Can SpaceX actually accomplish the Mars colonization goal, among other lesser goals?

Absolutely. Yes, yes they can.

I would never say they don’t have a chance. I would never say such is impossible. I fully believe not only that they can in principle, but in practice. I feel like, if the right amount of effort is put in, they can and will succeed.

However, I feel the fanbase simply does not consider all the possible issues, and as I have stated numerous times before, feel like SpaceX can’t fail, when they very well can. When you have an attitude like that, you know what happens? You get Columbia. You get Challenger. You get Apollo 1. You get Soyuz 1 and Soyuz 11. You get failure. You have deaths.

SpaceX needs to push its public relations to remind the fan base to keep a tempered optimism and perhaps focus more on the incremental stages to something like the BFR (“Big Fucking Rocket” as Musk wants to call the ITS booster) rather than focusing on a goal as if they could just build the rocket and launch it tomorrow. They are a decade away, and as I said, I feel they can do this.

That doesn’t mean they will, and it doesn’t mean that other launch services, space agencies, and such, are somehow inferior. They have their own goals, their own plans, their own ethos, and their own strengths that SpaceX simply doesn’t have. To deny such is to deny reality, which is another trend that indicates a cult-like mentality in some of the SpaceX fan base.

For now, though, I’m waiting to see what happens this November, if / when Falcon Heavy launches. I hope it will go well, but I also would not be surprised if something goes terribly wrong. In a way I’d certainly be happy if it did, as it would be another thing to add to the list of reasons SpaceX isn’t perfect, but do I want them to fail outright? No.

I want success for SpaceX, as I do any and all companies and governments involved in space related activities. I just would also want the fans to be realistic and not act like obnoxious children bringing up their company of choice every time they possibly can.

So, in the morning I’ll check out what Musk had to say this evening, and give my commentary. It should be fun.